June Real Estate Round-Up
By Jay McHugh, RE/MAX Affiliates, 2077 Centre Street, West Roxbury, MA. Questions should be directed to Jay at 617-323-5050 or faxed to 617-323-4040. E-mail JAYMCLB@aol.com or visit www.jaymchugh.com.
No June Rate Increase
The Federal Reserve's decision at the end of June not to immediately raise rates is expected to have a calming effect on the housing economy, which has seen boom years in 1997 and 1998 because of mortgages rates in the 6 and 7 percent range, and then a drop off in 1999 and this year as rates moved above 8 percent.
At its June meeting, the central bank said it was satisfied -- for the moment -- that the overall economy had cooled enough to offset the likelihood of rapid inflation. The bank warned, however, that additional rate hikes may be in store later this year if the economy once more begins to overheat. Some economists say they expect another nudge as early as the Fed's Aug. 22 meeting.
The prime lending rate currently stands at 9.5 percent, its highest level since January 1991. Mortgage rates are hovering around 8.5 percent.
Homes Sales Up Again
The National Association of Realtors reports that home sales are on the rise again, primarily because more homes are being put on the market.
According to NAR economists, sales of existing homes rose by 4.3 percent nationwide in May. If that pace continues, almost 5.1 million homes will change hands this year.
NAR officials say that one of the key reasons home sales had been slipping in the past several months was that consumers just weren't interested in moving. Demand was high, say the officials, but inventory was low. More homes came onto the market in May, however, helping satisfy the demand.
The national median existing-home price was $137,200 in May, up 3.3 percent from the same month a year ago when the median price was $132,800.
Beach Front Warning
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, whose job it is to prepare Americans for disasters and then help clean up after them, is worried that natural beach erosion along the coastlines could damage or destroy as many as 87,000 beach front homes and businesses in the next 10 years.
FEMA says about 1,500 homes are lost per year due to coastal erosion, with an annual loss that exceeds more than $500 million.
FEMA managers note that a major ocean storm can wipe away as much as 100 feet of beach front in one day. While some of that can be recovered through restoration work, not all of it can be replaced.
Summary
Lately I have been asked when will the prices start to level off. While there are many different opinions on this subject ranging from NAR economists to paid fortune tellers, I believe that a simple look at what is driving the market can explain the rise in prices very simply. For example, entry level buyers who are being offered high competitive salaries and bonuses from today's corporations purchase a starter home. From here that seller will have the equity to then purchase a larger home at a perceived premium price. Eventually, this paradigm continues upwards throughout the marketplace regardless of the characteristic of the client. Therefore, until we see a slow down in the entry level pay scale or a combination of layoffs and/or hiring freezes, the market is going to chug along with 3%, 5%, and even 10% gains a year! If and when this happens is talk for the so-called experts who are honest to say that even they cannot predict phenomena with accuracy. Of course other factors play an important role in this appreciating market but this reasoning is thought by many area brokers to be a plausible assessment of the market today! |